Invisible primary

When identifying and assessing this phony contest, it is important to reflect upon the term invisible primary (or pre-primary). The term depicts the period between the first candidate officially announcing their intention to run, and the opening primary of the campaign. The invisible primary has grown in importance since the journalist Arthur Hadley (1976) first identified the term, principally because of a greater level of scrutiny from the media and a wider proliferation of media sources. During the invisible primary, the money raised and the results of opinion polls are examined in great detail by the media. For the wider electorate however, this can be a very tedious affair indeed. It effectively lengthens the electoral contest when many people are neither that interested in politics, nor have a particularly high opinion of politicians. It arguably creates further distance between ‘them’ (the political elite and wealthy donors) and ‘us’ (the public).

There are six elements of the invisible primary, although the most important by a long way is the role of money. A would-be presidential nominee needs to have accumulated a sufficient level of funds in order to establish themselves as a frontrunner. It may also serve to deter potential rivals from running against them. The role played by the party hierarchy can also be a factor here, with former advisors and high-ranking members of the DNC/RNC offering their tacit support to the most suitable candidate. A frontrunner can emerge from this somewhat unedifying process, which can also serve to present that candidate as presidential in the eyes of the broader electorate. Given the importance of money to the invisible primary, the term money primary could well be used by informed pundits.

Another element of the invisible primary is the psychological test. The aim of this test is to ascertain whether a candidate has the sufficient mental and physical stamina for the task in hand. It is worth noting here that the President-elect must publish his medical records, and that the psychological test may also be applied to their choice of vice-president. For instance, in 1972 Thomas Eagleton revealed that he had been hospitalized for psychiatric treatment because of depression (which further undermined the already chaotic nature of McGovern’s candidacy). There is also a staff test to consider in which potential candidates must demonstrate their ability to recruit activists. Obama was particularly proficient at this in 2008. The strategy test however relates to the plan by which a candidate might secure their place as the frontrunner. A candidate may therefore have to change their stance on key issues, or to avoid making commitments they cannot meet. This also relates to a constituency test in which the candidate must demonstrate their ability to gain a nationwide group of supporters. Finally, the media test is crucial as potential candidates must perform well and avoid verbal gaffes. Any mistakes they make (such as Rick Perry’s “oops” moment in the 2012 Republican race) could be fatal to their presidential ambitions.