Short-term factors

 

                In terms of the 2012 presidential election, the most significant short-term issue was the state of the economy. During a time of considerable economic difficulties for millions of Americans, one might have expected Obama to lose public support. Unemployment was above the statistically-significant figure of 8%, the deficit had increased significantly and many were anxious about us losing out to China and other emerging economies. However, Mitt Romney failed to adequately convince the electorate that his alternative was any better. His ‘cut, cap and balance’ approach to curbing the federal deficit pleased the party base but did little to persuade moderates and independents. His personal wealth may have also alienated some voters, an issue the Democrats emphasized throughout the campaign.

 

                Another short-term factor during the 2012 election campaign was that of health care. The issue had gained prominence in the run-up to the election due to the controversy surrounding the Affordable Care Act (or ACA). The Supreme Court ruled that Obamacare was constitutional, a decision that represented a major blow to the Republicans. Furthermore, Romney was placed in a difficult position by Obamacare. Despite a pledge to repeal the policy, he had previously implemented a similar scheme during his time as governor of Massachusetts. This opened him up to the accusation of ‘Romnesia.’ The Republican campaign therefore failed to exploit an issue that President Obama was vulnerable on.

 

                Lifestyle issues such as abortion and gay rights sharply divide the two main parties. The Democrats adopt a more socially liberal stance whereas the Republicans are broadly conservative. In the 2012 campaign, Obama managed to gain 86% of the liberal vote despite being criticized by the liberal base for acting indecisively over gay marriage. In contrast, Romney gained 82% support amongst conservatives for his three F’s platform and his fiscal conservative proposals. According to various surveys, there are more conservatives than liberals within the United States. Conversely, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans – so the picture is somewhat mixed.

 

                Foreign policy is an issue that rarely plays a decisive role within American elections. Public support and interest is invariably one of mood rather than substance, and in a crowded political agenda foreign policy has to shout in order to be heard.  The American people only seem to give their attention to foreign policy when they feel it affects them directly in some manner. The stand-out example from the noughties is the 2002 congressional elections, the first elections to be held after 9/11. The GOP did remarkably well whereas the Democrats did poorly. National security has long been an Achilles Heel for the Democrats, whereas the Republicans are associated with a hawkish stance on such matters. Having said this, Obama managed to neutralize this negative during the 2012 presidential election due to the assassination of Osama Bin Laden. The Republicans were therefore denied the opportunity to capitalize on concerns over national security.

 

                Law and order should in theory be a strong card for the GOP. They are associated with a much tougher (and therefore reassuring) stance on crime than their Democrat opponents. However, the Democrats have at times claimed credit for declining crime rates – particularly during the 1990s under Clinton (Stiglitz, 2003). During the 2012 campaign Obama could cite falling crime rates, with overall crime rates their lowest for decades. As with national security, a key element of the GOP’s electoral strategy was effectively denied to them.

 

                Before we leave this section, it is worth reiterating the point that short-term factors have become more significant over time. Partisan identification amongst the electorate is considered to be in decline. As such, neither party can rely upon the same level of loyalty as they did in previous generations. Many more voters are prepared to consider the merits or otherwise of both main candidates. According to recent figures, 40% of the electorate fail to identify as either liberal or conservative. In order to appeal to the vital center, candidates must thereby seek to address their concerns on issues such as national security and the economy. They must also offer a convincing set of policies to address such worries. Within this critical slice of the electorate, Obama secured a comfortable 16% lead. In 2012, he managed to persuade the majority of moderates that he understood their concerns and was the best candidate to deal with them.