Swing voters

                My previous post leads inevitably towards a consideration of those who switch their vote from one election to the next. Switchers acting in large numbers can effectively determine the result of an election, particularly if they reside in a marginal congressional district or a swing state during a presidential election (such as Florida or Ohio). It is a truism of election campaigns that those who reside in marginal constituencies will gain more attention from the political parties and candidates than those who do not. To be blunt, some votes will always be worth more than others!

There are two main characteristics shared by floating voters. Firstly, they are likely to be closer to the center of the ideological spectrum than others. Committed liberals and conservatives are obviously inclined to support either the Republicans or the Democrats. Those voters in the center; sometimes depicted as moderates or independents; are always going to be greatly valued by the two main parties. Secondly, a switcher is more likely to share a certain social/geographical background. For instance, they are more likely to reside in the suburbs. The margin of difference in the 2008 and 2012 presidential election amongst suburban voters was a mere 2%. Switchers are also more likely to be between the ages of 40 and 49.

In terms of voting blocs it is predicted that women and Latinos will become increasingly marginal in future years. This argument however rests on the assumption that the GOP can broaden its appeal by adopting a more female-friendly position, or by adopting a more pragmatic approach to immigration. One might also assume that the Democrats could lose their appeal towards female voters and Latinos. The electoral importance of these groups is particularly noteworthy given that women are more likely to vote than men, and the number of Latinos is set to rise. The loyalty of any social group is ultimately dependent upon securing benefits of some kind from that party, or from an assumption that said party best represents their interests. Any voting bloc can collapse given the right level of pressure, as shown by the culmination of the New Deal alliance over the issue of civil rights for African-Americans.