Ethnicity

                Ethnicity is one of the most important means of social differentiation within the states (Enriquez, 2005). Our ethnic origin is a key aspect of our identity, both in terms of how we see ourselves and how others perceive us. Ethnicity can certainly have an impact upon our life chances, and not surprisingly can affect in some manner how we vote. When seeking to explore ethnicity and voting behavior, it is customary to begin with minority groups.

The Democrats have a strong lead amongst Asian voters. In the 2012 presidential election Asians preferred Obama over Romney by a whopping 47%. There are two reasons for this. Firstly, Asians are more likely to face discrimination within the workplace and the Democrats have long been associated with measures to tackle racial discrimination. Secondly, Asians are likely to earn less than whites. Once again, it is the Democrats who are more likely to favor a modest redistribution of wealth to ensure equal opportunities. In 2012, the Asian community made up around 3% of the total electorate.

                A similar picture emerges amongst Jewish voters, who have consistently favored the Democrats over the GOP for many years now. However, some Republicans have managed to reach out towards the Jewish community. For instance, Ronald Reagan consistently achieved a high degree of support from Jewish voters. The significance of obtaining the Jewish vote is arguably greater than that of other minority groups due to the substantial influence of the pro-Israeli lobby within American politics (Mearsheimer and Walt, 2007).

                African-Americans are the most loyal voting constituency within the states, consistently favoring the Democrats by a massive margin. In 2008 and 2012, Obama gained support in the high 80%/low 90% - an astonishing figure by any standards. There are essentially four reasons why African-Americans prefer the Democrats. Firstly, they earn considerably less than the national average. Secondly, virtually all black politicians are Democrats. For instance, during the 2012-13 Congress all 40 House representatives were Democrats. Thirdly, black people are more likely to face discrimination of some form and legislative measures to deal with discrimination tend to derive from the Democrats. Finally, black people tend to be further to the left of the political spectrum than other ethnic groups.

                The minority group that gains the most attention amongst political strategists and the political commentariat are Hispanics. In 2012, around 7 out of every 10 Latino voters supported Obama. However, it wasn’t that long ago that the Latino vote was fairly evenly split. In 2004, George W. Bush managed to reach out towards a high number of Latino voters. At the present time, arguably the most important variable to consider in regards to voting behavior is the GOP’s ability to attract Latino voters. Frankly, the GOP does have something of an image problem amongst this constituency. Perhaps the key reason for this is their uncompromising stance on immigration. For instance, voter ID registration in Republican-dominated states could easily be interpreted in a negative way by Latinos. During the race for the Republican nomination in 2012, Newt Gingrich offered a potentially beneficial strategy for the party by his proposal to relax their stance upon immigration. This strategy has been promoted further by Jeb Bush, who has gone so far as to describe illegal immigration as “an act of love” rather than a crime.

In the context of Latino voters, the Republicans should be mindful of how the party in California alienated this important demographic. The GOP’s brand within the golden state remains hampered by the infamous initiative 187 back in the mid-90s. Frankly, it made the party look unsympathetic to Hispanics. The need for the GOP to broaden their appeal towards Latinos is particularly urgent given the fact that they are now the largest minority group and, if present demographic trends continue; will be in the majority by the year 2042. The GOP simply cannot continue with its present alliance of supporters and still expect to win a presidential election. It is a lesson that Donald Trump seems incapable of learning with his controversial call for all Muslims to be banned from entering the states.

                As one can clearly see, the Democrats are very much the party of minorities. In contrast, the Republican Party is more appealing towards white voters. Indeed, the gap amongst white people at the 2012 election in favor of Romney was a healthy 20%. Given the fact that white voters are in the majority (72% of the electorate in the 2012 presidential election), phsephologists often by-pass ethnicity when considering white people and focus instead on income, religion and so on. Given the sheer size of the white majority, it is difficult to identify all-encompassing reasons as to why they lean towards the GOP. Having said this, white people might favor the Republicans because they are most closely associated with defending the status quo. For obvious reasons, white people have a vested interest in maintaining their disproportionate hold upon political and economic power. Republican opposition to policies such as affirmative action might be considered here. Whilst Democrats believe in the need for positive discrimination, Republicans are more willing to argue that such measures are harmful in some way. For instance, positive discrimination could be seen as a policy of giving members of once disadvantaged groups legal privileges designed to rectify past injustice; which therefore enables a minority to claim privileges legally denied to the majority. Equally, the Democrats have at times failed to offer a persuasive message to white people. Obama’s remark during the 2008 campaign depicting white people as “clinging to guns and religion” might be cited as an example.

                Before we leave this section on ethnicity, it is worth noting just how much things can change over a given period of time. White conservatives were a key element of the New Deal for many years, and yet the solid South is now overwhelmingly Republican. We must remind ourselves of this particular change because no party can simply assume that an ethnic group will always support them. In the foreseeable future at least, it seems highly likely that the group which might see the most concerted effort from the two main parties will be Latinos. That said; it must be noted that Hispanics and Latinos are catch-all terms that hide a degree of cultural differences and by implication voting preferences.