Short-term and long-term factors of voting behavior

                When seeking to comprehend the fascinating area of voting behavior, the first distinction to be made is that between long-term factors and those of a short-term character. Long-term factors that shape voting behavior have a degree of permanence from one election to the next. Obvious examples include ethnicity, geographical location and gender. In contrast, short-term (or recency) factors are those which are salient to voting behavior in any given election. For instance, the state of the economy at any given time will always impinge upon voting behavior to some degree.

                When seeking to make this distinction, one must recognize that short-term factors have become increasingly important as a determinant of voting behavior. The electorate is thereby more volatile than in previous generations. In other words, voters are increasingly ‘up for grabs.’ Party identification is in decline, and political parties can no longer depend upon long-standing alignments from their natural supporters. So whereas the salience of short-term factors has grown, the significance of long-term factors is in decline. Voters are largely cynical in their view of politicians, and in terms of what the political process can actually deliver. This may also be reflected in the level of voter turnout, particularly during second-order elections (such as those to the House of Representatives).

                Before we delve into voting behavior, it is important to note that the various factors cut across each other to some degree. In other words, we might say that a white man living in a rural area is likely to vote Republican based upon long-term factors such as gender, ethnicity and geographical location. However, this may cut across other factors. For instance, he may feel that the Democrats are better at managing the economy than the GOP. It is therefore important to recognize these cross-cutting factors when seeking to properly understand voting behavior. In addition, it should be noted that many people either inherit their party affiliations from their parents, or they form an attachment to one party or another early in their adult years. People form a stereotype of each party and may well gravitate toward the party made up of people like themselves. Once they have formed an allegiance, they twist perceptions of reality so they become even more closely aligned with that group. In other words, people become Democrats and then place a high value upon values such as equal opportunity and freedom of choice. Equally, a person becomes Republican and then places increasing value of limited government and the second amendment.